Preseason Rankings
Big Ten
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 Michigan St. 85.0%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 7 +15.5      +9.2 10 +6.3 19 66.8 234 0.0 1 0.0 1
19 Michigan 74.5%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 8 +13.4      +6.8 32 +6.6 15 61.5 338 0.0 1 0.0 1
22 Wisconsin 68.7%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 8 +13.0      +7.1 27 +5.9 23 59.1 350 0.0 1 0.0 1
25 Indiana 64.5%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +12.5      +7.4 22 +5.1 35 66.6 237 0.0 1 0.0 1
27 Purdue 65.7%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 11 - 9 +12.2      +7.1 29 +5.1 34 67.1 227 0.0 1 0.0 1
32 Maryland 58.8%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +11.3      +6.8 31 +4.5 46 65.7 264 0.0 1 0.0 1
34 Iowa 52.0%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 9 +11.0      +9.3 9 +1.8 120 73.9 61 0.0 1 0.0 1
35 Nebraska 57.6%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 9 +11.0      +5.8 45 +5.2 32 68.2 202 0.0 1 0.0 1
40 Ohio St. 49.8%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +10.4      +5.6 48 +4.9 38 66.2 251 0.0 1 0.0 1
57 Penn St. 41.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 11 +8.9      +3.5 80 +5.4 30 67.7 212 0.0 1 0.0 1
62 Northwestern 33.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 11 +8.6      +4.6 64 +3.9 62 61.8 334 0.0 1 0.0 1
68 Minnesota 30.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 12 +7.9      +4.9 58 +3.0 81 73.4 71 0.0 1 0.0 1
76 Illinois 22.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 8 - 12 +6.7      +4.9 59 +1.8 117 73.2 74 0.0 1 0.0 1
140 Rutgers 5.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 5 - 14 +2.2      -2.0 228 +4.2 56 64.9 281 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Michigan St. 4.5 20.3 15.6 13.0 10.1 8.5 7.2 6.4 5.1 4.4 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.1 0.5
Michigan 5.1 17.7 13.4 10.5 9.4 9.2 7.3 6.7 6.2 5.5 4.2 3.6 3.0 2.2 1.1
Wisconsin 5.5 12.8 12.6 10.7 9.9 8.8 8.6 7.1 6.7 5.9 5.3 4.3 3.4 2.6 1.1
Indiana 5.5 15.1 11.6 10.8 9.3 9.1 8.0 7.4 6.0 5.8 5.1 4.4 3.4 2.9 1.1
Purdue 5.9 12.5 10.7 9.4 9.0 8.7 8.0 7.4 7.1 6.8 6.3 5.3 4.4 3.1 1.3
Maryland 6.6 9.0 9.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 7.9 8.0 7.7 7.4 6.7 6.7 5.4 4.3 2.5
Iowa 7.1 6.3 7.1 8.0 8.2 8.0 8.7 7.9 8.1 7.6 7.9 7.4 6.5 5.1 3.2
Nebraska 6.4 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.5 7.3 7.9 7.0 6.7 6.0 5.4 4.2 2.0
Ohio St. 6.7 8.4 8.8 8.2 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.2 7.6 7.0 6.1 5.7 4.4 2.6
Penn St. 7.9 4.9 5.4 6.3 6.3 6.9 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.3 8.7 8.8 8.0 8.2 5.2
Northwestern 8.1 3.9 4.8 5.7 6.3 6.8 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.7 9.0 9.3 8.6 7.6 5.7
Minnesota 8.5 3.1 4.4 4.6 5.4 6.4 7.1 7.7 7.9 8.5 9.2 9.6 9.7 9.2 7.4
Illinois 9.3 1.9 2.4 3.6 4.7 5.1 5.5 6.3 7.3 8.8 10.1 9.8 12.0 12.7 10.0
Rutgers 12.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.5 3.6 4.3 6.0 8.6 12.6 19.7 37.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.5 8.2 10.1 11.2 11.9 11.9 10.2 8.1 5.5 3.3 1.1
Michigan 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.0 5.7 8.0 9.2 9.9 10.6 10.4 10.0 9.0 6.7 4.6 2.7 1.4 0.3
Wisconsin 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.5 5.3 7.1 8.4 9.9 10.7 11.2 10.4 9.6 7.8 5.8 3.7 1.5 0.4
Indiana 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.1 6.9 7.7 10.0 10.1 11.1 10.0 9.2 7.9 5.7 4.1 2.3 0.9 0.1
Purdue 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.0 5.0 6.3 7.8 9.0 9.6 10.7 10.2 9.7 8.2 6.8 4.8 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.2
Maryland 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.4 4.1 5.5 7.7 8.6 10.1 10.2 10.4 9.7 8.4 7.0 5.7 3.9 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.1
Iowa 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.0 4.6 6.9 9.0 9.2 10.2 10.8 10.5 9.6 8.1 6.6 4.0 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.1
Nebraska 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.3 4.0 5.1 7.6 8.1 9.7 9.9 10.8 10.6 8.6 7.0 5.9 4.2 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2
Ohio St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.1 5.7 7.6 9.0 9.9 11.0 10.2 9.8 8.0 6.9 5.5 3.5 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1
Penn St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.2 4.8 6.7 8.0 9.4 10.6 10.7 9.9 8.8 7.6 6.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
Northwestern 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.0 5.0 6.7 9.2 9.9 10.5 10.6 10.3 9.3 7.6 5.5 4.0 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
Minnesota 8 - 12 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.3 5.7 7.5 9.3 10.4 11.2 9.9 9.4 8.5 7.0 5.0 3.7 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois 8 - 12 0.4 1.6 3.4 5.8 8.0 9.4 10.3 11.4 10.9 9.5 8.4 6.8 5.5 3.5 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 5 - 15 3.8 8.6 11.8 14.0 14.4 11.5 10.8 8.0 6.1 4.4 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan St. 20.3% 13.5 5.4 1.1 0.3 0.0
Michigan 17.7% 11.7 4.7 1.0 0.3 0.0
Wisconsin 12.8% 7.8 3.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Indiana 15.1% 9.9 4.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Purdue 12.5% 8.1 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Maryland 9.0% 5.7 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Iowa 6.3% 3.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 9.3% 5.7 2.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Ohio St. 8.4% 5.2 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 4.9% 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 3.9% 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 3.1% 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois 1.9% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rutgers 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan St. 85.0% 16.9% 68.1% 3   13.3 13.5 12.8 10.2 9.3 7.5 5.6 4.5 3.4 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.0 82.0%
Michigan 74.5% 10.8% 63.6% 4   6.7 8.2 10.1 9.1 8.8 7.9 6.4 6.0 4.2 3.6 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 25.5 71.4%
Wisconsin 68.7% 10.0% 58.7% 5   5.3 7.4 8.8 7.7 7.6 8.1 6.6 5.9 4.5 3.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.3 65.2%
Indiana 64.5% 9.9% 54.6% 8   3.5 5.0 6.6 6.2 6.9 6.0 6.9 7.5 5.2 5.1 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 35.5 60.6%
Purdue 65.7% 8.8% 56.9% 5   5.3 7.3 7.8 8.0 7.3 8.4 6.0 5.3 4.0 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 34.3 62.4%
Maryland 58.8% 7.4% 51.4% 7   2.7 4.7 5.4 5.9 6.5 7.0 6.0 6.2 5.0 4.4 3.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 41.2 55.5%
Iowa 52.0% 6.9% 45.0% 9   1.9 2.6 4.3 4.5 5.4 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 48.0 48.4%
Nebraska 57.6% 6.7% 50.9% 8   2.3 4.0 5.8 5.5 6.2 7.5 5.7 6.0 5.1 4.6 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 42.4 54.6%
Ohio St. 49.8% 6.6% 43.2% 9   1.7 2.6 3.7 4.0 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 50.2 46.2%
Penn St. 41.4% 4.6% 36.8% 1.1 2.1 3.3 3.6 3.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 4.1 3.9 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 58.6 38.6%
Northwestern 33.2% 4.1% 29.1% 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.6 3.5 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.0 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 66.8 30.3%
Minnesota 30.7% 3.6% 27.1% 0.4 0.8 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.9 3.3 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 69.3 28.1%
Illinois 22.0% 2.7% 19.3% 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.9 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 78.0 19.8%
Rutgers 5.3% 1.0% 4.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 94.7 4.4%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan St. 85.0% 1.4% 84.5% 65.8% 39.8% 22.3% 11.5% 5.8% 2.8%
Michigan 74.5% 2.3% 73.4% 51.8% 28.4% 14.1% 6.8% 3.3% 1.6%
Wisconsin 68.7% 2.1% 67.8% 47.7% 26.0% 12.6% 5.8% 2.8% 1.4%
Indiana 64.5% 3.5% 62.8% 42.1% 21.1% 10.4% 4.8% 2.2% 0.9%
Purdue 65.7% 1.7% 64.9% 44.4% 22.6% 10.7% 5.0% 2.2% 1.1%
Maryland 58.8% 3.0% 57.3% 36.9% 18.0% 8.0% 3.4% 1.4% 0.6%
Iowa 52.0% 4.0% 49.9% 31.9% 14.6% 6.6% 2.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Nebraska 57.6% 3.3% 56.1% 35.2% 16.3% 7.1% 3.3% 1.4% 0.7%
Ohio St. 49.8% 4.4% 47.7% 30.0% 13.5% 6.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Penn St. 41.4% 2.5% 40.2% 22.7% 9.4% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Northwestern 33.2% 4.5% 30.9% 16.8% 6.4% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2%
Minnesota 30.7% 3.5% 28.9% 16.1% 6.3% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2%
Illinois 22.0% 2.5% 20.8% 10.4% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Rutgers 5.3% 0.9% 4.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 8.1 21.6 30.9 24.4 10.5 2.2 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.9 0.0 0.4 2.5 10.2 24.2 31.0 21.5 8.4 1.6 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 4.5 0.1 0.8 5.1 16.2 27.1 27.1 16.2 5.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 94.8% 2.3 5.2 20.7 33.3 27.1 11.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 72.7% 1.1 27.3 43.8 22.8 5.6 0.5 0.0
Final Four 42.7% 0.5 57.3 35.8 6.3 0.5 0.0
Final Game 21.9% 0.2 78.1 21.0 1.0
Champion 10.4% 0.1 89.6 10.4